The data comes from US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), CPI for June 2023
- due at 1230 GMT, which is 8.30 am US Eastern time:
US CPI Preview: Shelter and services CPI will be key
Via ANZ:
- We expect both headline and core CPI inflation to rise by 0.3% MoM in June. Such an outcome would still be too hot for the Fed. Although goods price inflation should remain subdued and further reductions in rent-based inflation are likely to occur, the Fed needs to see more of a slowdown in core services ex-housing to be confident overall inflation is headed to 2% sustainably. For this to happen labour market conditions need to soften further and with it wages growth.
Via Deutsche Bank:
- We expect a +0.20% MoM gain for headline CPI (vs. +0.12% previously) and a +0.28% increase for core (vs. +0.44%) which would have the YoY rate for the former dropping by a full percentage point to 3.1%, while that for the latter would drop by 30 bps to 5.0%, both in line with consensus.
- This would leave the three (4.6% vs. 5.0%) and six-month annualised (4.8% vs. 5.1%) core rates still well above the Fed’s target.
Bolding above is mine.