George Saravelos is global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank. This from a note to clients on the US dollar.
I haven’t seen the note so this from news wire reports about the place.
- USD to weaken through 2024 and into 2025
- EUR/USD forecast is 1.15 by end-2023, and higher to 1.20 is ‘entirely possible’
- the US CPI report on Wednesday means the Fed won’t need to hike as was previously thought, nor will the Fed need to hold rates high as long
- the “US inflation print is the last piece of evidence we have been waiting for to recommend going long EUR/USD again”
- “we feel increasingly confident that the US disinflation process is well underway”
- “the disinflation process looks increasingly benign. We have been arguing that the most bearish outcome for the dollar is a combination of declining US inflation under relatively OK growth conditions”