Oxfor Economics on the US economy and benchmark index S&P500, in brief:
- US recession still looks likely
- the Fed’s chances of creating a soft landing for the U.S. economy is fuelling bullish sentiment
- see an economic slowdown starting later this year, this will stop the S&P 500 from returning to its 2022 record high
- US recession could see the S&P 500 fall “back to test the 50% retracement of the rally since last October, which is currently just below 4,000”
The index has shrugged off all the bearishness so far this year