The miss in the US CPI report triggered a heavy US Dollar selling
across the board as the market started to see the end of the Fed tightening
cycle. Moreover, the soft-landing narrative caused a strong positive risk
sentiment in the markets as the labour market remains strong and the consumer sentiment keeps on rising. This week though,
the better-than-expected Retail Sales data on the Control Group, which is a
better gauge of consumer spending, and the big beat in US Initial Claims gave
the USD a tailwind and we saw most of the losses after the US CPI getting
erased.
The RBA, on the other hand,
kept its cash rate unchanged with the usual hawkish comments and the promise of
doing more if the data suggests so. In fact, the recent RBA meeting minutes showed that there was a strong case
for a rate hike but the central bank decided that holding steady was a better
choice and they will reconsider at the August meeting. The data for now points
to another rate hike as the Australian Jobs report this week surprised again to the
upside.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD couldn’t
break above the 0.69 resistance again
and retreated into the 0.6781 support level. Looking at the bigger picture, we
have been mostly ranging since March as the market is probably awaiting some
big fundamental change to start trending again.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
now consolidating around the 0.6781 support and the moving averages have
crossed to the downside. The bias at the moment is bearish and a break below
the low should see more sellers piling in to extend the fall into the 0.6563
support. The buyers, on the other hand, are likely to defend this level and
target a bounce into the 0.69 handle again.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a mini range around the support level and the buyers and sellers are
likely to “play the range” until one side gives up and leads to a breakout. The
sellers will want to see the price breaking below the 0.6750 swing low to
extend the selloff into the 0.6563 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking above the 0.6837 swing high to target a break
above the 0.69 handle.