It has been a mixed session on Wall Street where US500 and US100 lost 0.7% and 2.3% respectively but US30 wrapped up a ninth day of wins, its longest winning streak since 2017 and its highest intraday level since April 2022. This can feel like rotation -for now- after the blistering tech driven rally but it is also somehow reflective of the mixed earnings and economic data that are coming out. Don’t take me wrong, 73% of the companies that have already reported beat, but the number is down from >80% earlier this week; job market looks strong while manufacturing data (and retail sales?) are not. Bonds sold off, USD has been consistently bid and Gold retreated: odds for a further rate hike after July somehow increased but Fed Funds futures are still pricing a terminal rate of 5.405% in November. Overnight, the Japanese headline CPI was slightly higher than expected (3.3% y/y) but that was not the case for the Core data: anyway, JPY is still offered. Retail sales in UK are out few minutes ago and that was a beat (+0.7% m/m, +0.2% exp.) that is helping demand for GBP.
OIL is still headed north, USOil regained $76, UKOil is trading above $80. You have probably heard about the rally in agriculturals and it’s good to keep an eye on the commodities prices input for future inflation developments. Anyway, Wheat price is still well below where it has been for the vast majority of time since the beginning of 2022.
- FX – The USDIndex is trading at 100.48 after yesterday’s gains (+0.61%); EURUSD at 1.1144 (+0.13%), GBPUSD at 1.2890 (+0.19%), USDJPY above 140.
- Stocks – US Futures are +0.1% on average this morning. Some of yesterday’s performances: J&J +6.07%, Abbot Laboratories +4.24%, Merck +2.37%, Well Fargo +1.88%, Berkshire +1.22%, Coca Cola +1.22%, McDonald +1.02%, Walmart +1.85%, Exxon +1.76%, Chevron + 1.11%, On the negative side: Tesla -9.74%, Netflix -8.41%, Nvdia -3.31%, Alphabet -2.65%, Meta -4.27%.
- Commodities – USOil is still trading at $76.35, UKOil $ 80.34.
- Gold – trading at $1971.25 after -0.28% yesterday, Silver +0.37% after falling > 1% yesterday.
Today – American Express reports, CA retail sales
Biggest Mover (@06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.62%), trading at $24.68 along its ascending channel, RSI at 69.28, MACD Positive, above its long term MAs, 50-day one just crossed the 200-day one to the upside.
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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
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