It’s finally Fed day but there isn’t much drama around the decision. Market pricing is 97.2% for a hike, so it’s largely a done deal for the 2 pm decision.
What will matter is what comes next and there’s currently only a 20% chance of a hike at the subsequent meeting in September, rising to 50% in November. At his 2:30 pm ET press conference, Powell is likely to keep his options open but hints about which way he’s leaning will be market movers.
Ultimately, though, it will depend on economic data and that includes today’s new home sales report at 10 am ET. The consensus is 725K sales but home builders are increasingly optimistic and I see upside risks for 2024.