more to come
In summary from WPAC:
- The Board is expected to be guarded on the positive news on headline inflation for the June quarter. Just as we saw at the May meeting – risks to achieving the inflation path, particularly in 2024, should see the Board taking more insurance and maintaining its tightening bias.
Westpac has consistently argued that a further increase in the cash rate should be the appropriate policy response at the August meeting and we confirm that view. We also believe that the Board should maintain its tightening bias, repeating the sentence: “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe.” Previously we had a firm view that a follow-up increase in September would be required. We are now comfortable that maintenance of the tightening bias beyond August should be sufficient. Markets and most commentators have concluded that the better print on headline inflation for the June quarter will be sufficient for the Board to extend the pause that it began in July for another month.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting is on Tuesday 1 August 2023. the statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time
- 0430 GMT
- 1230 am US Eastern time