The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected and kept everything
unchanged. This outcome was already baked in, and the market was more
interested on possible hints from Fed Chair Powell regarding the next policy
moves. Unfortunately, Powell didn’t offer much as he just repeated their data
dependency and kept all options on the table. The data since the FOMC meeting
has been supporting the soft landing narrative with the US Jobless Claims beating expectations once again and
the US PCE and Employment Cost Index coming lower than expected.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Russell 2000 Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the Russell
2000 is starting to consolidate just beneath the key 2030 resistance zone.
This is where we should see the sellers piling in aggressively with a defined
risk above the resistance to target the lows. The buyers will need to break
this strong zone with conviction to open the door for a rally towards the 2140
level.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Russell 2000 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD right
when the price is nearing the resistance zone. This is a sign of weakening
momentum, often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the price
pulled back to the 1965 support and bounced as the buyers piled in to target a
breakout of the resistance.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Russell 2000 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
are now basically stuck in a range between the 2030 resistance and the 1965
support. The best strategy is generally to sit out and wait for a clear
breakout before taking a position. Nonetheless, one can also “play the range”
by buying at support and selling at resistance until the breakout.
Upcoming
Events
This week there are many top tier economic indicators.
On Tuesday, we will have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Job Openings. On
Wednesday, it will be the time for the US ADP. Moving on to Thursday, the
market will focus on the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI.
Finally, we conclude the week with the US NFP report on Friday.