The slightest of beats in the quarterly GDP reading for Q2 will at least provide the ECB some comfort, even as growth conditions are seen slowing down significantly. It is still a positive estimate and it is one that they can use to keep the spin of things if they want to push the agenda for a pause in September.
However, the details should reveal that consumption i.e. domestic demand is still extremely subdued – as seen with France’s report here – and that’s an ominous sign for conditions for the remainder of the year. The manufacturing recession is already worsening and as services sector growth begins to ease, it won’t bode well for the overall picture.
Meanwhile, the CPI data for July shows that headline annual inflation is indeed easing further and matched estimates today. But core annual inflation, the one data point that the ECB has been so adamantly highlighting in the past few months to justify their tightening, continues to remain sticky at 5.5% – unchanged compared to June. And that is only marginally lower than the 5.7% peak that we saw in March.
If the ECB wants to be consistent, the fact that core prices are still very much elevated should justify further tightening. However, it seems now that they want to spin the narrative to say that their policy transmission is working and will need more time to feed into that particular segment of the economy.
Adding to that, is the fact that we are seeing the economy start to struggle going into Q3 and credit conditions are also tightening hard and could perhaps lead to a stronger downturn later in the year.
So, the ECB definitely has bits and pieces from both sides to work with. It just depends now on how they want to sell their next story to markets.