The week got off to a slow start as there was little in the way of economic news to trigger much market reaction.
The USD opened little changed at the start of the session and currently has mixed gains and losses vs the majors. Recall on Friday, the US jobs data showed that the headline NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) didn’t meet expectations and underwent a notable downward revision. That sent yields lower. Stocks also gave up gains on Friday and closed lower for the day and the week.
With a mixed dollar, the biggest gains today were against the JPY (+0.29%) and CHF (+0.23%). The biggest declines have been vs the AUD and the NZD (-0.24% and -0.13% respectively). The other pairs vs the USD are little changed.
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) fluctuated around the 102.00 level.
This week, but not until Thursday, traders will be eyeing the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data release. The expectations are for 0.2% but the YoY is expected to move up to 3.3% from 3.0% last month. The YoY numbers over the next two months will drop off MoM readings of 0.0% and 0.1% which will make lowering the CPI to 2.X% not likely.
Most of the top earnings releases are not behind us although Disney will report on Wednesday. Nvidia is yet to announce but they are not scheduled until later in the month.
There were Comments from the Federal Reserve’s Bowman over the weekend suggesting that further US rate hikes might be necessary if data indicates a halt in progress on inflation.
The USDJPY tried to go lower and reached a new low going back to July 31. It also fell below the 200-hour MA and 38.2% of the move up from the July 28 low at 141.71 and 141.66 respectively, but could not sustain momentum and is currently trading back at 142.226. That move has now taken the price above a swing area by at 142.07 (close to short-term risk). If upside momentum can continue, the next major upside target comes against the 100-hour moving average at 142.74.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is showing some movement as well as it extends below its 200-hour moving average at 1.10000 and trades down to 1.0992.
GBP/USD remains stable with the City of London advising the Bank of England to postpone bank capital rules until mid-2025.
The AUDUSD is ticking above the falling 100-hour MA at 0.6678 tilting the technical bias marginally to the upside. If the price can stay above that MA and get above the high from Friday at 0.6608, the door may open for a run toward its 200 hour MA at 0.66504 and the 38.2% of the move down from the July 14 high at 0.66589.
The USDCHF, followed the USDJPY higher and tests its 100 hour MA at 0.87517. Move above is more bullish. Find sellers against the level and the early buyers this week, might flip to sellers in a hurry.
US e-mini S&P stocks are up 0.33%. The Nikkei 225 erased much of the declines but is still down -0.10%.