Advanced goods trade balance
The solid day for risk assets continues in the market despite rising Treasury yields and a steady dollar. The S&P 500 is up 32 pints to 4511 in a nice rebound from last week’s selling.
Looking ahead, the whole week hinges on Thursday’s CPI report but there will be some interesting tidbits along the way including in Tuesday’s US trade.
The main highlight tomorrow is the June trade balance report. This used to be more of a market mover before the advance goods trade balance data and now continues few surprises. Still, there have been reports of a pickup in export orders in the PMIs so perhaps there is room for optimism above the -$65.0B deficit expected.
Along with that, the US will report on June wholesale inventories. That’s an important number for GDP but we’ve already had the advance Q2 number so it will filter into the revisions.
On the Fed calendar, we get:
- Harker at 815 am ET
- Barkin at 830 am ET
- NY Fed Q2 household debt survey
Harker and Barkin are both good barometers of the center of the Fed and these comments could be a preview of the Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole Fed conference.