- Barring ‘alarming’ new data by mid-Sept, I believe we may be at the where we can be patient and hold rates steady.
- Should we be arrive at the point of holding rates steady, ‘we will need to be there for awhile’
- Does not foresee any consequeences for an immediate easing of the policy rate
- Latest PCE report showed continued disinflation
- Sees core PCE falling just below 4% by year end and below 3% in 2024 and at target in 2025
- Expects unemployment to ‘tick up slightly’
- Expects only a modest slowdown
- I do see us on the flight path to a soft landing we’ve all been hoping for
- Focused on the Oct 1 resumption of Federal student loan repayments
Key line:
“Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work.”
This is a big comment from a centrist at the Fed and possibly a preview of what Powell will say at Jackson Hole.
We also hear from Barkin at the bottom of the hour.