- Prior -9k; revised to 47k
- June ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.0% expected
- Prior 4.0%
- June employment change -66k vs 75k
- Prior 102k
- June average weekly earnings +8.2% vs +7.3% 3m/y expected
- Prior +6.9%; revised to +7.2%
- June average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +7.8% vs +7.4% 3m/y expected
- Prior +7.3%; revised to +7.5%
Oh, boy. There’s a quite a bit to break down on this one. Once again, the standout here is that wages data continues to run hot and that will keep the pressure on the BOE to tighten policy further. However, it comes against the backdrop of a rising jobless rate with yet another 0.2% increase in June from May.
While the more hawkish bets might give the pound a brief lift, keep in mind that with data such as these that stagflation risks are also on the rise and that isn’t a good long-term outlook for the economy and the currency.