The dollar finally cracked under the pressure of “skip” talks, as equities also rose to try and salvage what had otherwise been a rather rough week. Of note, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both returning back above their respective 100-week moving averages as stocks look to close out the week on a stronger note.
The dollar on the other hand, has seen its recent advance halted. USD/JPY is straying further away from the 140.00 mark as Treasury yields declined for a third day running after the long weekend.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD has turned a corner with buyers now moving price back above the key hourly moving averages for the first time in four weeks. The pair is now trading around 1.0765 with the 1.0800 mark being where sellers will need to draw the line to maintain the downside momentum.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are seeing strong rebounds after testing key support at 0.6500 and 0.6000 respectively on the week. Both pairs are now trading roughly 100 pips above that as buyers look to come up for some air.
Given the circumstances, this sets up a situation where the risks heading into the US jobs report are skewed to the downside for the dollar. If the data is weak, the greenback is vulnerable to an extended pullback. On the flipside, if the data is as expected or better, it still isn’t enough to fully convince markets of a 25 bps rate hike in June.
With there being nothing on the agenda in Europe, we may be in for a quieter one before all the action kicks off when we get to the non-farm payrolls later.
I wish you the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.