Justin had this on Friday:
Adding a little more now.
Analysts at GS say that “Two consecutive upside surprises to the sequential core (inflation) pace in the January and February releases have lowered the odds of an earlier cut”, and have thus shifted their forecast for the first 25bp rate cut from the European Central Bank to the June meeting. GS were previously expecting the first cut in April.
Goldman expects five 25-basis-point cuts in 2024, down from the six earlier it had been projecting. But is expecting two in 2024 now, from just one previously.
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If you look at the meeting dates from 2024 GS is expecting a 25bp cut at every meeting from June.