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ANZ New Zealand expect RBNZ rate hike in February 2024, previously expected November 2023

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ANZ analysts say the weaker-than-expected inflation buys the RBNZ some time.

The data ICYMI:

ANZ, in brief:

  • We now expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR 25bp in February, rather
    than November.
  • Annual CPI inflation decelerated from 6.0% in Q2 to 5.6% y/y in Q3,
    weaker than our forecast of 6.1%, and below the RBNZ’s August MPS
    forecast of 6.0%. The downside surprise was on the tradables side.
  • Non-tradables inflation came in at 6.3% y/y, slightly above the August
    MPS forecast of 6.2% y/y but below our forecast of 6.5%.
  • While still far too high, core inflation measures improved, which will be
    pleasing for the RBNZ. CPI excluding food, fuel, and energy fell to 5.2%
    y/y (6.1% previously). Trimmed mean measures largely eased. At the
    30% trim level, inflation eased from 6.0% y/y to 5.6% y/y. Weighted
    median inflation eased from 6.6% y/y to 5.0% y/y.
  • Tradables inflation (largely imported) came in at 4.7% y/y (5.2%
    previously), well below our forecast of 5.5% y/y and the RBNZ’s forecast
    of 5.8% y/y. Petrol prices were higher, but not as high as we expected.
    Petrol price moves will be looked through, at least as long as inflation
    expectations continue to ease.
  • The details of today’s data support our view that domestic-driven inflation
    pressures remain a significant problem. However, clear progress was
    evident, and that takes pressure off the RBNZ to move the OCR any time
    soon. In short, ‘hope for the best’ remains a valid strategy. Accordingly,
    we have pushed our forecast hike out to the next meeting, the February
    Monetary Policy Statement.

Upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand dates:

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