The US hombuilders ETF $XHB today is at an all-time high in what could be a breakout from a double top.
XHB etf daily
The sharp rise since late October mirrors the drop in US Treasury yields over that time and highlights the pent-up demand for US home ownership. We may never see 2% rates for 30-year fixed mortgages again and that will keep people in their current homes, where they may rent rater than sell if/when they move.
It’s a dynamic that’s pushing people towards new builds, where homebuilders are offering rate buy-downs.
For the macroeconomy, I suspect home building will be a tailwind for the US economy not seen in many other parts of the world in 2024 and 2025.