The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker got plenty of attention ahead of last week’s GDP report because it was persistently on the high side and that proved to be right.
Now, it’s downshifting significantly and sees 1.2% growth in Q4.
After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and -2.2 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.11 percentage points to 0.22 percentage points.
It’s early in Q4 tracking, so expect the numbers to be volatile and remember that we’re three months away from the very first reading on Q4.