AUD/USD daily chart
In the second half of February trading, AUD/USD saw a modest rebound from its lowest levels since November last year to around 0.6580-95. The rebound stalled amid a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) at the time as well. That considering the daily closes failed to breach the key technical level. But this week, buyers are looking to make a play as seen above.
The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-day moving averages is seen at 0.6560-63 currently. And price has broken past that point as buyers bid the pair to 0.6590 now. That shifts the bias to being more bullish but there is still that key resistance region of 0.6580-95 to shake off.
And essentially, that is where we are at now for AUD/USD. Buyers are holding out hope in trying for an upside break while sellers are looking to defend against that.
A push above the key resistance region highlighted will bring into focus the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6606 next. That will come alongside some swing highs in January around 0.6614-24 in limiting further upside potential.
As for any downside return, sellers will have to push price back below the confluence of the daily moving averages noted above.
Looking to today, overall dollar sentiment is fairly mixed thus far on the day. European currencies are not making much headway against the dollar while the Japanese yen is doing its own thing. The aussie and kiwi are sort of outliers as they are keeping stronger despite softer risk sentiment, so there is that to weigh up.
All else being equal, I reckon we might have to wait until the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow to settle the score in AUD/USD.