AUD/USD daily chart
This is definitely one that the chartists will adore as the pair has been somewhat consolidating in between 0.6600 and 0.6800 mostly in recent months, before the latest break lower. The upside momentum was held each and every time at the 100-day moving average (red line), while downside support was seen around 0.6570 (white line) for the most part.
Then, came the latest break lower from yesterday and that is setting off technical alarm bells as the pair now looks poised for a test of 0.6500 again. The Pacific peso is back it would seem.
The things are just not lining up well for the aussie at the moment. Risk sentiment is soft and that is already weighing on the currency, adding to a selloff in key commodities such as iron ore and copper. Not only that, China’s recent economic data has also been a bit underwhelming and that also led to a weaker yuan – a negative spillover for the aussie.
Then, you throw in a stronger dollar and the technical development above, and you sort of see why the latest downside break might have further room to run.
The only plausible tailwind for the aussie at the moment is perhaps the RBA may have to shift back to raise the cash rate again in the months ahead. However, that isn’t so much so a given for the time being.