The AUDUSD is trading within a range over the last two weeks between 0.6594 to 0.67057. That’s not a big range.
The ups and downs have allowed for the 100/200 hour MAs to center near the middle of that range between 0.6651 and 0.6661. Earlier today, the price fell below both those moving averages but has since seen a rotation back to the upside on the US dollar selling (helped by declining yields).
On the top side, the pair approaches its 100-day moving average at 0.66843 (blue step down line). Above that is the 200-day moving average of 0.66963 (higher green line on the chart below). Earlier today, the Asian session high stalled right near that higher 200-day moving average.
Last week on Friday – and again on Tuesday and Wednesday – the price moved above both those moving averages. That should have led to increased upside momentum with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June 16 high at 0.6611 as the next target. However, each of the breaks stalled short of that retracement level, and the price rotated back to the downside.
Ultimately, if the buyers are to take more control (and the short-term bias shifted in their favor above the 200 and 100-hour moving averages), the price needs to get above the daily moving averages as well AND the 38.2% retracement.
Risk now is the 100 and 200-hour MAs again at 0.6661 and 0.6651 respectively.
AUDUSD short term bias shifts to the upside