US

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
  and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
  end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
  they will proceed carefully.
• The US CPI last week beat expectations on the
  headline figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the
  market’s pricing barely changed.
• The labour market remains fairly solid as seen once again yesterday
  with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
  time in a row.
• The US PMIs
  recently showed that the US economy remains pretty resilient.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report last Friday missed across the
  board with the inflation expectations figures spiking back up.
• The US Retail Sales this week beat expectations by a big
  margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The Fed members continue to cite elevated long-term
  yields as a reason to proceed carefully and will likely pause in November as
  well.
• Fed Chair Powell yesterday highlighted the rise in long term yields
  as well and the need to “proceed carefully”.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

Australia

• The
  RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
  returning to target with the current level of interest rates.
• The
  latest monthly CPI showed that core inflation is
  slowing.
• The
  labour market continues to weaken as seen this
  week with the miss the employment change and the losses in full-time
  employment.
• The
  Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction while
  the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The
  RBA Minutes were surprisingly hawkish and it
  looks like the central bank might squeeze in another rate hike if the
  underlying inflation doesn’t slow faster in the next couple of months.
• The
  market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the AUDUSD pair
continues to fall but in a rangebound manner as the bearish momentum remains
weak. The price recently bounced on the previous low but got rejected from the resistance around
the trendline.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
price action formed a descending triangle with the
trendline and the support at 0.6285 defining the pattern. The best strategy
would be to wait for a breakout on either side of the pattern and go with the
flow. From a risk management perspective though, the sellers should lean on the
trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the
support. The buyers, on the other hand, should lean on the support to position
for a rally into the trendline targeting a breakout.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the price action within the triangle that is generally messy and quite
erratic. In fact, as previously mentioned, the only levels to watch should be
the trendline and the support.

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