In late-June I highlighted that seasonals for stock markets were strong for July and that’s exactly what took place, including a 13-day rally in Dow Jones Industrial Average.
That chapter is closing and it’s time to turn the page to August so here are some seasonal highlights:
- Worst month for the German DAX
- Worst month of the year for AUD/JPY (by far) and the yen is generally strong
- Worst month for AUD/USD
- Worst month for copper
- EUR/USD neutral
- Second-best month for gold
- Second worst month for Nikkei
- Neutral for the Nasdaq
- Worst month for NZD/USD
- Fourth-worst month for the S&P 500
- Best month for 10-year bonds (i.e. falling yields)
- Worst month for USD/JPY, though the pair was strong last year
Looking further ahead, last year could be instructive. Stock markets rallied through mid-August before peaking on 16th followed by a sharp reversal. September is the worst month for the S&P 500 and also starts a three-month run of seasonal weakness for oil.