The market pricing heading into today’s decision showed roughly 63% odds for a no change move, so it isn’t an overwhelmingly disappointing decision for aussie bulls. Besides that, the RBA kept any language changes to a minimum and the forward guidance is more or less left the same as it is before. The only thing is that they reaffirm that this move is to reassess the situation.
AUD/USD daily chart
AUD/USD did fall but from around 0.6680 to around 0.6650 levels at the moment. The drop isn’t much as markets might still be convinced that the RBA may hike again in August. They definitely haven’t closed the door on that. However, it is worth mentioning that the central bank did note that “inflation in Australia has passed its peak” and they are clearly watching the monthly inflation indicators rather closely.
Going back to the chart above, the setback for AUD/USD also comes as the pair ran up against the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages at 0.6692-93. That is a key area for sellers to lean on but there is still more work to do as well. The near-term chart shows the 100-hour moving average at 0.6637 and they have to break that in order to recapture the recent downside momentum.
Otherwise, buyers will also have a spot to lean on and the push and pull will continue since the latter stages of last week.