The Australian labour market survey for July 2023 is due at 11.30 am Sydney time,
- which is 0130 GMT and 9.30 pm US Eastern time
Expected and priors can be found here:
Commonwealth Bank of Australia is expecting the unemployment rate slightly higher than consensus at 3.6%. Snippet preive from CBA:
- we are expecting continued strong, albeit easing labour demand
- The labour market is clearly still very tight but there is evidence that it is loosening. The underemployment rate has been drifting higher, pushing up the underutilisation rate . Further, leading indicators for unemployment suggest further loosening going forward.
- At the same time, extremely high migration inflows are increasing labour supply. This means stronger than normal employment growth is required to keep the unemployment rate steady. These factors in conjunction with our forecast for below trend growth suggest to us the unemployment will rise in coming quarters.