Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for May 2023, main points made by WPAC on their data:
- The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, declined to -1.09% in May from -0.78% in April.
- Tenth consecutive negative print for the Index.
- Components capturing world growth; dwelling approvals; commodity prices and job confidence deteriorated over the month.
- Negative prints since August consistent with tepid growth reported for December and March quarters.
- Ongoing weakness in line with Westpac’s 0.6% growth forecast for 2023.
This is the lowest read of the growth rate of the Leading Index since the pandemic. It continues the run of negative growth rates which began last August and is entirely consistent with the disappointing growth rates which have been reported for the December and March quarters (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). The negative Index growth rates point to below-trend economic growth. The most recent quarters certainly fall into that category and Westpac expects the weakness to extend through 2023 and into 2024.
AUD/USD is not a lot changed on this data.