Today’s Bank of Canada decision isn’t a completely foregone conclusion but it’s highly likely they leave rates unchanged at 5.00% at 10 am ET. The market is pricing in an 81% chance of no move from Macklem but the odds rise into next year and creep up to 60% for the March meeting.
I think the market is way off on those expectations and for the just 16 bps in cuts priced in next year.
That said, it’s way too soon for the BOC to signal a dovish stance.
Other data on the agenda today includes US new home sales for September and a 5-year Treasury auction.