Barclays does not expect the tech-centric rally seen so far this year to spread more broadly to the rest of the index.
- forecasts S&P 500 at 4150 by year-end (previously had estimated 3725)
- expects equities to remain range bound
- sees full-year S&P 500 earnings per share at $218, from $200 prior
- “Surprisingly resilient goods consumption through 1H23 was one of the main reasons why our prior EPS estimate was low in hindsight”
- “While the economy has enjoyed a handful of backstops to date, we believe the outlook is still murky, considering the forward path of inflation remains unclear, which means rates are likely to remain higher for longer”
A bit further out:
- “We also introduce our 2024 S&P 500 price target at 4500, and our FY24 EPS estimate at $22”