There is an interview with Bill Gates in Wired today and he says he ‘absolutely’ believes that artificial general intelligence is coming in ‘the next few years’.
He also has a warning for what it will mean.
Anybody who analogizes this to electricity, tractors, microcomputers, they don’t get it. This is not a productivity aid for humans. This is something that exceeds human capability. It is not bounded in any way, and it is happening very, very quickly. Just looking back on previous tech revolutions and saying, “OK, that all worked out,” is no guide for this one.
He goes onto say that there is no mechanism to slow it down.
I think all this talk about tariffs and interest rates and what’s happening in the market right now is woefully myopic because a huge storm is approaching for everyone and every part of the economy.
Unfortunately, Gates isn’t given an opportunity to elaborate on the macro impacts but the answer is: No one knows how it will work out. I’m sure it will be the biggest economic disruption in human history.