Bitcoin continues
to surprise as it remains resilient to many headwinds. Yesterday we even saw a
big rally after some banking woes, which
resembled the bullish reaction following the regional banking crisis seen in
March. Looks like Bitcoin is the go-to asset in case we see more troubles in
the banking sector. Anyway, the price action remains choppy amid different
drivers, so the technicals remain the only way to play it.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin
yesterday has rallied above the support turned resistance and it’s
now eyeing the 31K high. We already saw a fakeout previously, so the buyers
will need to be careful here and manage well risk. Another fakeout should give
the sellers more conviction and take the price back to the 28475 level if not
lower.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a
rejection right from the previous fakeout high, so the level to watch now will
be the 29500 support as a break below it should lead to a selloff into the
28475 level. The buyers will need the price to break above the 30K level to have
more conviction and pile in for a ride towards the 31K high.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor trendline that
is providing some support for the buyers. This is where the buyers may start to
pile in for another try for a break higher. As previously mentioned, a break
below the 29500 level would be ominous for the buyers and most likely lead to
more selling pressure.
Upcoming Events
This week the
main events will be the US CPI and Jobless Claims reports tomorrow. For the US
CPI, the market is likely to focus more on the Core readings as this is what
the Fed is more interested in. Higher than expected data may lead to a risk off
sentiment as the market should start to price in a more hawkish Fed and it
might weigh on Bitcoin as well. On the other hand, lower than expected readings
may lead to a risk on sentiment due to the soft-landing narrative and no more
rate hikes and support the cryptocurrency. At the same time of the US CPI data,
we will also see the latest US Jobless Claims report, which might have an even
bigger effect if the data shows a big surprise. In fact, a miss may cause
recessionary fears and lead to a selloff in Bitcoin, while a beat may be taken
as bad news because the Fed may keep on hiking.