Via the latest weekly note from BlackRock Investment Institute, says markets overly excited about Fed rate cuts:
- Markets expect the Fed to cut rates sharply – and we think this pricing is overdone.
- U.S. inflation has slowed as pandemic disruptions have faded and due to a temporary immigration boost to the workforce. We see inflation staying sticky due to loose fiscal policy and the impact of mega forces, limiting how far the Fed can cut.
- Yet we think recession fears are overdone and stay overweight U.S. stocks.
Markets have short memories. Back in January markets were looking for six, even seven, FOMC rate cuts in 2024. Pretty much the definition of ‘you don’t have to be crazy to work here, but it helps!’
BlackRock remain bullish US equities: