Bank of America analysts say that US Treasury yields dropping back from the recent 16-year highs are encouraging:
- BofA Rates Strategy holds the baseline view that fair value for the 10 year UST yield is in the 4.03.10-425% range and we will get there by year-end 2023
but their outlook for US equities:
- “Bond yields may go lower in ’24 but no secular bull market until Fed/govts stop playing Superman, put on their ‘seatbelts’ & express the need for lower deficits”
- and also noted that cash and T-bills levels as a percentage of overall BofA assets under management have reached levels not seen since March 2020
Meanwhile, economists at the bank say that US economic data continue upside surprises while inflation continues to grind lower.
- maintains its view that recession will be avoided
- low growth will emerge in 2024, 0.5% GDP growth expected for Q2/Q3 2024