Bank of America economic analysts on their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications for the US dollar.
- We retain our view that the Fed has one more policy rate hike in
store and look for a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting for
a terminal target range of 5.50-5.75% - we retain our view that the first policy
rate cut will come in May 2024
For the currency:
- Despite the USD’s notable selloff earlier this month, we remain
constructive in the short term, as broader economic resilience
suggests that eventual rate cuts would likely occur later than
currently priced, all else equal - While we
still see the dollar overvalued for the longer term, the fight
against inflation in a relatively resilient economy should have USD
supportive aspects