- September inflation figures not far off what we were expecting
- Core inflation fell slightly from what we expected, that is quite encouraging
- We will see more evidence of lower inflation by year-end
- Pay growth still well above anything consistent with inflation target
On the headline, it is mostly to do with base effects I would say as ONS does estimate that the rate of consumer price inflation in October 2022 was the highest in over 40 years. But at least the trend in food price inflation is helping, although services inflation continues to remain stubbornly high – seen at 6.9% in September.