Via the latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan outlook, main points:
- BoJ will begin to unwind ultra-loose monetary policy in January, 21% of economists say.
- BoJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, 84% of economists say in their end-quarter forecast; from 71% in Nov poll and 54% in Oct poll.
- 88% of economists say BoJ will end yield curve control policy; 12% say BoJ will tweak YCC again.
- BoJ deposit rate to rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by end-Q2 2024, say 28 of 42 economists; two say 0.25%.
***
Daiwa Securities, Mitsubishi UFJ
Morgan Stanley,
Nomura Securities and T&D Asset Management said the BOJ
would end its negative interest rate policy at
the January 22-23
meeting.
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and ZKB predicted
the BOJ would
abandon its yield curve control (YCC) policy in
January. Daiwa
Securities foresaw the BOJ tweaking YCC again,
raising the
long-term interest rate guidance target and
retaining the
policy’s framework to avoid a sharp rise in
long-term interest
rates.
***
Dec 18 and 19 is the final meeting for the year.
The ‘Summary’ of this meeting will come on December 27
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaks on December 25.