The S&P 500 is still down 13 points but given that it fell more than 40 earlier, that’s an impressive rebound and a strong showing for the bulls. That’s especially true given relentless buying since late May.
The market is coming around to something I’ve been writing since the start of the year: The US consumer is strong and the 30-year fixed mortgage is a US superpower. Moreover, 5.00-5.25% Fed funds might be a headwind now (and for the remainder of the year), but that’s 500 basis points of room for the FOMC to cut later. That’s a lot of dry powder.
SPX daily
Today looked like it would be a good day for some profit taking and there’s certainly angst ahead of quarter-end rebalancing but the bulls aren’t showing much patience. It looks more and more like many people have missed out on this rally and are looking for any dip to buy.
Ryan Detrick today points out that when the S&P 500 is up more tthan 10% YTD as of the end of June, the final six months are up a median of 10%. Bottom line, a strong first half usually means a strong second half, with average gains of another 10%.