- Consensus estimate +225K (range +110K to +288K)
- Private +200K
- February +311K
- March +236K
- April +190K
- May +339K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.6% vs 3.7% prior
- Participation rate prior 62.6%
- Prior underemployment U6 6.7%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.2% y/y vs +4.3% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior
Here’s the June jobs picture so far:
- ADP employment 497K vs 170K expected
- ISM manufacturing employment 48.1 vs 51.4 prior
- ISM services employment 53.1 vs 49.2
- Philly employment -0.4 vs -8.6 prior
- Empire employment -3.6 vs -3.3 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 265K vs 259K expected
According to BMO, the headline payrolls print is seasonally solid in June coming in above estimates 52% of the time and missing 48% of the time by 171k and 70k, respectively, on average. If that holds up, it will be the 15th straight reading above the consensus. That’s an unprecedented streak and a remarkable show of strength in the jobs market.
In terms of strategy, there’s plenty of talk of buying bonds on a strong non-farm payrolls print in anticipation of a lower CPI next week. The read-through into FX for that trade would be selling a dollar pop if non-farm payrolls are stronger.
Non farm payrolls vs consensus expectations