The US dollar is broadly weak today as yields give back some gains following a weaker ADP employment report. The US added 89K private jobs in September, lower than the 153K consensus.
The market is struggling to figure out what’s happening in the jobs picture after yesterday’s strong JOLTS data followed by today’s soft ADP numbers. Later today we get the ISM services report, which contains an employment metric and on Friday the non-farm payrolls report is due.
Most signs point to a resilient US economy though but that could be challenged by higher interest rates and the lagged effects of rate hikes.
In any case, the market is acting as though the US economy will outperform the rest of the world in the year ahead and it’s led to some charts like cable:
GBPUSD daily
The pound held up in the USD buying yesterday with support at 1.2000 holding. I think it will need to get above the October 1 high and the channel top to spart a meaningful retracement to 1.24000 but that’s not impossible, even today, if there’s a weak ISM services report at 10 am ET (1500 in London).