- Prelim November estimate was unchanged
- October sales were +0.6%
- Retail sales ex-autos -0.7% vs +0.1% expected
- Prior ex-autos were +0.1% (revised to -0.1%)
- Core sales -1.0%
- December advanced sales +1.6%
The December number is important here as it shows a big rebound. Canada put in a GST (Canada’s VAT) holiday that started December 15 and it pushed back retail sales. The holiday continues through Feb 15 and then we will see a whipsaw again.
In terms of sectors, the November decline was led by lower sales at food and beverage retailers (-1.6%), with supermarkets and other grocery retailers (except convenience retailers) (-1.5%) contributing the most to the decline. Sales were also down at general merchandise retailers (-1.0%) and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-2.1%) in November.
On the strong side were car sales up 2.0%.