The echoes of the recent BRICS summit resonate with significance, promising to cast ripples across the market’s landscape. As the curtains fall, let’s unpack the main takeaways that hold the potential to reshape market dynamics in profound ways. In a bold...
ECB Pause More Likely – Eyes on Lagarde
Inflation is coming down on both sides of the channel, but while headline rates are dropping thanks to base effects, services price inflation in particular looks sticky. In Europe, the August flash HCOB PMI reports were a huge negative surprise, with the plunge in...
A look at the Fed pricing ahead of Jackson Hole later today
And arguably rightly so. Given the data that we have seen in the past few weeks, there is no imminent suggestion that another rate hike is needed. But considering the robustness of the US economy, we have seen firmer pricing down the road in terms of the rate path...
Germany August Ifo business climate index 85.7 vs 86.7 expected
Prior 87.3; revised to 87.4Outlook 82.6 vs 83.8 expectedPrior 83.5; revised to 83.6Current conditions 89.0 vs 90.0 expectedPrior 91.3; revised to 91.4It's a fall across the board as the German economy stutters with the services sector also now faltering after the...
Market Update – August 25 – Powell at Jackson Hole, inflation mission not accomplished yet
US equity markets pulled back strongly yesterday with US30 having its worst day since March, US100 its second worst in August and US500 swinging down $105 from the daily high to the daily low and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern. The mighty NVDA started trading...
A more cautious mood for stocks as European trading gets underway
Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%This mirrors the more tepid mood in US futures as well, as equities are perhaps waiting on Wall Street for the next move again. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% but it's not indicative of...
China reportedly plans to cut stamp duty on stock trading in bid to recover sentiment
It's been an extremely rough last few weeks for Chinese equities as the dominoes appear to be falling in the property sector. It is now being reported that China is planning to try and provide some help with authorities looking to cut the stamp duty on domestic stock...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Watch out for this reversal risk
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US economic data keeps on surprising to the upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to...
FX option expiries for 25 August 10am New York cut
It's a quiet one on the expiries board, with not really any significant ones to take note of for the day.There is a large one for EUR/USD at 1.0825 which isn't too far away. However, the 1.0800 level and 200-day moving average at 1.0802 remains the more important...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The break of the range is a bearish signal
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US economic data keeps on surprising to the upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to...
Germany Q2 final GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q prelim
GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) -0.6% vs -0.6% y/y prelimGDP (seasonally adjusted) -0.2% vs -0.2% y/y prelimNo changes to the initial estimates as the German economy is seen stagnating in Q2. Given what we're seeing with the numbers so far until August, it is safe to...
Germany Ifo business survey the highlight of the agenda in Europe today
The dollar is looking pretty ahead of European trading, after the ugly reversal in equities yesterday. It's one of those times when market confidence is shaken and sentiment right now is extremely fragile. Whatever case that dip buyers had before the plunge yesterday...
Dollar looking comfortable after ugly equities reversal yesterday
It truly turned out to be a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact when it came to Nvidia earnings. Tech shares were routed once we got to US trading yesterday and dip buyers were scorched. Nasdaq futures were up over 1% in European morning trade but the index ended...
ICYMI: The agenda for the Jackson Hole symposium
Just in case you missed Eamonn's earlier post here, this will just be a rehash of that. Powell will be delivering the opening/keynote speech, which is expected for about 25 minutes, at 1405 GMT. That will be one to watch alongside Lagarde's address at 1900 GMT, so...
BOJ to keep policy as it is until at least July 2024 – poll
5% (1 of 22) expect BOJ to start unwinding ultra-easy policy this year55% expect that to happen some time after July next year73% expect the BOJ to end yield curve control some time next yearOn the final bit, that is seen up from 50% in the July poll at least....
Here’s a $148K forecast for Bitcoin – Halving set up
A forecast for a much higher BTC price from 'Panetra Capital'."Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterwards,""The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days – from the halving to...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD a little higher again
Moves were not large during the session here today but were characterised by small, but mixed, gains for the USD. EUR, GBP, CHF and CAD are all down a few points while AUD and NZD are more or less unchanged. From Japan today we had Tokyo area CPI data for August (the...
Japan is considering fuel price relief measures
A few comments from Japanese officials on fuel prices. There is nothing concrete and these may not mean much beyond seeking to calm nerves over high fuel prices, not helped by a weak yen of course (Japan imports are more expensive with the slide in the yen).Japanese...
An oil ICYMI – US administration in talks with Venezuela about boosting supply
U.S. officials are proposing to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector if the country moves towards free elections. \If sanctions are eased it'd allow more US firms, and others, to import Venezuelan crude. Media reports on this cite unnamed sources. It does make...
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking on Saturday, 26 August 2023 at Jackson Hole
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