It does not preclude future decisionsComfortable with current level of ratesSees inflation target being reached in 2H 2025April rate cut would be inconsistent with ECB's macro scenarioOn the headline, I reckon that interpretation is not up to him or the ECB to make....
ECB’s Lagarde: We will set rates at restrictive level for as long as needed
We will return to 2% inflation targetTo set rates at restrictive level as long as needed for thatEurozone will not grow as much as expected earlier, but should pick up in 2024Weaker growth does not mean recessionShe's not really offering too much pushback or...
Treasury yields continue to climb towards the end of the week
US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chartWe're not at fresh highs for 10-year yields in the US but just be wary of the levels we are seeing as we approach the end of the week. The high this year was at around 4.36% but during that week, the close itself saw yields...
Eurozone July trade balance €6.5 billion vs €23.0 billion prior
Prior €23.0 billion; revised to €18.5 billionHere are some details which might give a better picture of the euro area trade situation, relative to last year when energy prices were much higher:Jan - Jul 2023 exports €1,663.0 billion (+2.3% vs Jan - Jul 2022)Jan - Jul...
JP Morgan raises China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% vs 4.8% previously
China has definitely thrown a lot at the problem as they not only cut RRR for the second time this year but also delivered more rate cuts and bolstered support for the property sector. But is it really enough? Only time will tell but personally, I still hold my...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The pair is at a key level
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained...
Italy August final CPI +5.4% vs +5.5% y/y prelim
Prior +5.9%HICP +5.5% vs +5.5% y/y prelimPrior +6.3%The readings are more on less in line with the initial estimates and lower than in July at least. But at above 5%, they are still much too high for the ECB's liking although the trend is encouraging.MoneyMaker FX EA...
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bias remains bullish
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US CPI this week came in line with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained...
ECB hawks trying to keep the door open for more rate hikes
This might be what is helping the euro a little so far today, as the FT is reporting that several of the ECB's more hawkish members are of the view that there could be another rate hike in December if wages and inflation pressures continue to persist. It cites three...
France August final CPI +4.9% vs +4.8% y/y prelim
Prior +4.3%HICP +5.7% vs +5.7% y/y prelimPrior +5.1%Despite the higher estimates on the headline figures in August, core inflation is seen easing to 4.6% (down from 5.0% in July). That said, overall prices are still sitting well above the 2% target set by the ECB....
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FX option expiries for 15 September 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries to take note of for the day. There is a large one for USD/JPY at 146.75 but that is not likely to factor into play given the price action we're seeing. As such, trading sentiment will continue to rely more on the risk mood and...
AUD/USD still caught in a consolidative phase after August fall
AUD/USD daily chartThe aussie is benefiting from a stronger Chinese yuan today, alongside better risk sentiment overall. Equities are able to take heart in the fact that major central banks are starting a new shift in the narrative. It no longer is about rate hikes in...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – New lows expected
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained...
ECB to begin rate cuts in June 2024 – Citi
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
EUR/USD on the edge after ECB signals end to rate hikes
EUR/USD daily chartThe euro was beaten down after the ECB policy decision yesterday, in which the central bank communicated that they are more or less done with rate hikes already. The question now is, for how long can they stick with their higher for longer...
UAW strikes kick off, plants at each of the three legacy Detroit carmakers affected
The United Auto Workers (UAW) have started their strikes early Friday, with simultaneous walkouts at GM, Ford and Stellantis (Chrysler's parent company). For some context: A September UAW strike is almost a sure thing12,700 workers are said to be involved with the...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD higher after better than expected data from China
China’s August economic activity data was published today with beats across the board. The real economy has been showing signs of ‘green shoots’, even as the property sector sinks deeper into distress. We had more or this today with the news that Chinese state-linked...
Australia has a new Reserve Bank of Australia Governor today – Bullock replaces Lowe
No doubt Lowe will be in demand in the private sector should he wish to head that way. He leaves the RBA with a bit of a cloud over him due to the ill-advised comment in 2020 about 'no rate hikes until 2024'. And with inflation having gotten away from the bank forcing...
Japan’s next CPI data will show core inflation above target for the 17th straight month
The next Japanese national inflation report, for August, is due at 8.30am Tokyo time on 22 September, which is 2330 GMT on the 21st.The Bank of Japan meeting concludes later that day. Reuters polling of analysts shows core inflation is expected at 3%, above the Bank...