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The US data focus on Thursday, 14 September 2023 is August retail sales & PPI
Both of these data points are expected come in lower than in July. If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not already locked into an 'on hold' decision at its meeting next week it will be after the data. For the headline Retail sales number the range of...
ICYMI – China says it hasn’t issued any ban on Apple’s iPhone
China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s press conference on Wednesday brought a statement that China hasn’t issued any laws or rules to ban the use of iPhones or any other foreign phone brand.China did not issue any law, regulation or policy document that...
Australia August Jobs +64.9K (vs. +25K expected) & Jobless rate 3.7% (vs. 3.7% exp)
The vast bulk of jobs added were part-time. Good news for those with the new jobs but for markets this takes some of the shine off that +64.9K headline number. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged due to the jump in participation, that 67% result is a record...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1874 (vs. estimate at 7.2784)
The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for September: 4.6% (vs. prior 4.9%)
Taking some of the steam out the AUD, which has rallied so far for the session. Lower expectations of inflation are good news for the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank would hate to see expectations become 'unanchored'. Coming soon, Aussie jobs data:MoneyMaker FX EA...
Japanese buying of foreign bonds surged last week
Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance earlier showed big buying of foreign bonds.The week ended September 9 saw Japan buy 3.6tln yen of foreign bonds, analysts in the time zone are describing it as a 'massive' result. If you check out the graph below you'll see it was...
AUD higher heading into the jobs data soon (NZD, CAD and yen higher too)
The summary of Asia so far is a weaker USD. While EUR and GBP are up a few tics the gains are more notable for AUD, JPY, NZD and CAD. Apart from what has already been posted (barely any news at all really) there is nothing fresh on the wires or data calendar. The jobs...
Goldman Sachs shifts into neutral – only asset class they like is cash
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2784 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Japan data – July Machinery Orders -1.1% m/m (expected -0.9%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Morgan Stanley expect no FOMC rate hike in September – US CPI report “a small victory”
A couple of analysts at Morgan Stanley on the US CPI report issued Wedneday and the implication for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). One: the 10% increase in oil prices added 35bp to headline CPI for 3 monthsand just 3bp to core CPIHigher energy prices must...
UK data – house price indicator from RICS hits a 14 year low
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balancemeasures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house pricesfell to -68 in August (expected was -56, from -55 in July), weakest since February 2009Chief economist...
BofA predicts limited EUR/USD reaction to upcoming ECB decision
Bank of America believes the European Central Bank is likely to hike rates on Thursday, albeit it's a close call with market pricing at 50%. Despite potential short-term strength in EUR, the bank expects the currency's upside to be limited due to relative economic...
JP Morgan cut their forecasts for the UK economic growth
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
BoA on oil: OPEC+ cuts, Asia demand – “Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl”
A higher oil price forecast into year-end from analysts at Bank of America, this in summary.BoA bottom line is:Should OPEC+ maintain the ongoing supply cuts through year-end against Asia's positive demand backdrop, we now believe Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl...
Fitch still expecting US recession, in H1 2024. Also expecting 1 more Fed rate hike.
Fitch says global economic growth is deteriorating, reflecting "the deepening slump in China’s property market is casting a shadow over global growth prospects just as monetary tightening increasingly weighs on the demand outlook in the U.S. and Europe” expects the...
China – Shenzhen Eases Home Purchase Curbs to Unleash Demand
Caixin report on one of China's megacities, Shenzen, rolling back some of the nation’s strictest limits on home purchases: The city of 17.6 million people introduced a series of measures starting in 2016 aiming to blunt skyrocketing housing prices and speculationIn...
JP Morgan expects CPI to hit Fed 2% target by late 2024 – but don’t expect more FOMC hikes
Dow Jones / Market Watch conveyed comments from the chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.says inflation will drop under the Federal Reserve's 2% target by late 2024On the CPI data released Wednesday, and whats to come further ahead:"I don't think that...
US CPI response, with core surprising to the topside the November FOMC is very much live
A response to Wednesday's US CPI report, the headline was unremarkable but the core rate jumped to a faster rise than was expected (there's a but on this, I'll come to that in a moment). ICYMI:As for the 'but' on that +0.3% m/m core results, in their response piece...