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JPMorgan economists now no longer expect a US recession 'this calendar year'. This is one of those instances where it becomes abundantly clear that the consensus has moved from recession...to mild recession...to soft landing...to no landing. I still think there's room...
A Friday afternoon is no time for a breakout but oil is going to be in focus next week, especially if the US dollar continues to retreat. The big level to watch is $83.53.If that breaks, we're at the highest since November.On the CPI front, year-over-year gasoline...
Oil rigs 525 vs 529 priorGas rigs 128 vs 128 priorOil prices are on a nice run today. Rigs were up at 625 to start the year so we've lost nearly 100 and DUCs are basically exhausted. There aren't many taps to turn on if oil prices run (at least not in the...
The EURUSD wandered lower this week and in the process dipped below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2021 high on the daily chart at 1.0942. What the price in the EURUSD could not do is stay below the rising 100-day moving average currently at 1.09193. That...
According to sources cited by Reuters, U.S. President Biden plans to sign an executive order early next week to scrutinize outbound investment to China. Previously, the Financial Times reported that the Chair of the House China Committee, Mike Gallagher, is urging the...
The GBPUSD is higher on the day and in the short term, the buyers are "in play". Trading above the 100 hour MA tilts the bias in that direction but there is work to do.Looking at the daily chart, the technical picture is more in the buyer's favor. What I like about it...
GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis and ChartsGBP/USD is down one cent over the week in thin trade.EUR/GBP remains rangebound. Recommended by Nick Cawley How to Trade GBP/USD Get My Guide UK Breaking News: BoE Hikes by 25bps to 15-Year HighThe Bank of England raised interest...
Stoxx 600 dailyClosing changes:Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.4%FTSE 100 +0.5%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.7%Weekly:Stoxx 600 -2.5%German DAX -2.5%FTSE 100 -1.6%French CAC -2.1%Italy MIB -2.9%Spain IBEX -3.2%It was a rough week but there was something of...
EURUSD trades to a new session highThe EURUSD has extended to a new session high as London/European traders look toward the end of week. The price is approaching the swing high from Monday near 1.10449. The high price from last Friday reached 1.10467. The 38.2%...
CIBC continues to believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points once again in September.The below consensus hiring and past downward revisions suggests that the labor market is coming into better balance. Still, the drop in the unemployment rate and...
EURUSD on the hourly chartThe EURUSD dipped lower as popost-jobsolatility takes over. The technical's are also in play in the EURUSD pair.The run to the upside today was able to extend above its 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move down from last...
Jobs market cooling a bit but still extremely strongGoods inflation has been tough to bring downHighlights improvements in US productivity as disinflationaryFed has to be patient, monetary policy has lagsQuestion should be: How long are we going to stay at these...
Fed's BosticThe Fed funds market is pricing in a decline to 4.04% at the end of 2024 right now with cut pricing accelerating around May.You can imagine there will be some genuine enthusiasm in equities when we get a better sense of when cuts are coming but that will...
The NASDAQ index has now turned into negative territory. The NASDAQ index was up as much as 143.62 points. It is now trading down -5.16 points (traded down -18.68 at the lows).The S&P index has also moved into negative territory after giving up a gain of 28.34...
The AUDUSD followed the trend in the US dollar to the downside, but Azucena reversal over the last few minutes. Technically the price moved above its 100-hour moving average of 0.65975. It also moved above a swing area between 0.6595 and 0.6603. The high price reached...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The major US indices opened higher and moved even higher in the early trading for the day. Stocks are reacting to lower yields with the 10 year now down -7.4 basis points. The thirty-year is down -3.7 basis points.A snapshot of the market 12 minutes into the open and...
Monday:Fed’s Kashkari (hawk – voter) kept the door open for a rate hike in September as the FOMC remains data dependent:Not sure when the Fed will be done raising interest rates, making good progress. Will let the data guide the Fed, may or may not raise rates in...
EURUSD was above it 200 hour moving averageThe EURUSD is now breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 1.10037. The 50% midpoint of the move down from last week's high comes in at 1.1030 and is the next upside target. The high from last Friday and Monday came in...
The US dollar is broadly slumping as Treasury yields fall and dollar bulls take profit. The soft non-farm payrolls headline is winning the day and there's a UBS note circulating (aided by Nick Timiraos) that argues that next month's average hourly earnings number will...