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The tone from the Bank of England was less-hawkish today and that's led NatWest to cuts its terminal peak rate forecast to 5.50% from 6.00%.Market pricing puts the terminal rate at 5.70% next March. For the upcoming meeting on Sept 21, the market is at a 61% chance of...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The USDCHF moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the end of June high at 0.8784 in the European session, but could not sustain momentum. As a result, the price rotated back to the downside. Swiss CPI did come in at -0.1% which helped to push the USDCHF to...
In the days leading up to the Bank of England announcement, you could see the tide shifting away from 50 bps. The RBA announcement and dipping European data added to the momentum.We're seeing something of a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' trade in cable as it now...
Despite yields moving higher (curve steepening continues to drive the debt market), the USDJPY is moving to a new session low and in the process is testing (and now breaking ) below is 100 hour moving average at 142.49. Stay below the moving average level keeps the...
Factory orders rise 2.3% in JunePrior month 0.3%Factory orders 2.3% versus 2.2% expected. Best since June 2021Ex transportation 0.2% versus -0.4%Orders are up 6 of the last 7 monthsShipments of factory orders rose by 0.1%Unfilled orders of factory orders increase by...
Details:employment index 50.7 versus 53.1 priornew orders index 55.0 versus 55.5 priorprices paid index 56.8 versus 54.1 prior new export orders 61.1 versus 61.5 priorimports 52.3 versus 54.6 priorbacklog of orders 52.1 versus 43.9 priorinventories 50.4 versus 55.9...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US yields continue to move higher with the longer and outpacing the short end. The 30-year yield is up 12.4 basis points to 4.288% (the highest level since November). The 10-year is up 10.3 basis points to 4.182% (also the highest level since November).The rise in...
The EURUSD has traded in an up-and-down trading range today. On the downside, the price continues to toy with its 100-day moving average . That level currently comes in at 1.09164. The low price today did extend below that level to a low of 1.0912, but momentum could...
The BOE has come and gone. The BOE raise rates by 25 basis points. Some expected 50 before the decision. The price of the GBPUSD moved to a new low near 1.2618. That that the price between a swing area between 1.2599 and 1.26238. Buyers leaned then have push the price...
Brent prices are up more than $1 after this announcement, which was a Reuters poll showed was expected by 15 of 22 oil analysts. That means it wasn't fully priced in and you can see that from the reaction.The state news agency carried the headlines and said the cut...
Inflation and Prices:Bailey expects inflation to drop to about 7% in July and to around 5% by October.A more gradual decrease in energy prices compared to the Euro Zone contributes to this trend.Food and drink inflation seems to have peaked, with an expectation for...
The US dollar is at the lows of the day against the euro and is giving back gains against the pound.GBPUSD 10mIt's also at a session low against the yen.The dollar selling comes after the Bank of England press conference wrapped up. The BOE hiked rates by 25 bps with...
Personally, I see a case for slightly increasing the pace of QTWe are seeing bond markets react to developments, including in the USI don't think there's a structural change going on in the bond marketThe press conference has ended with UK 2-year gilts down 9.4 bps to...
Initial jobless claims steadyPrior week 221K. That remained unrevisedInitial jobless claims came in as expected at 227K. That is an increase of 6000 from the previous weeks on revised 221K4 week moving average 228.25K a decrease from 233.75K last weekContinuing claims...
Advance reading was +4.2%Prior reading was +6.3%Q2 productivity +3.7% vs +2.0% expectedThis is a great report for the Fed as unit labor costs continue to fall and productivity improves. These things are notoriously tough to measure so take them with a grain of salt...
The ISM services data is the highlight of the economic calendar today, with the consensus showing a slip to 53.0 from 53.9.That's at 10 am ET along with factory orders but before that -- at 8:30 am ET -- we get weekly jobless claims and Q2 unit labor costs.Following...
Inflation remains too highFed's objective isn't to cause a recession but to reduce inflationConsumer spending, while weaker, is 'far from weak'Efforts to address inflation have pushed several industries into 'mini-recessions'I don't see anything relevant...
The strongest to the weakest of the major currenciesThe JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the North American session begins. The Bank of England (BoE) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), moving the bank rate to 5.25%. The decision was in...