Markets:Gold down $9 to $1916US 10-year yields up 3.1 bps to 4.30%WTI crude oil up $0.99 to $87.68S&P 500 down 34 points to 4468EUR leads, GBP lagsThe overall moves in the FX market today weren't large but there was significant movement under the surface. It...
Does Xi skipping the G20 signal a challenge to his leadership?
Yesterday's blockbuster column in Nikkei touched on some sensitive issues in China. The weekly column on China from Katsuji Nakazawa has a mixed history but if this one is true, it would mean that Xi Jinping is under some real pressure.The column argues that Xi's...
Oil climbs for the ninth consecutive day
OIl dailyOil is getting harder to ignore, both as a macro factor and for its own sake. WTI settled up 85-cents today to $87.54. It's another high settlement dating back to November.The breakout from the 2023 range has been confirmed now and the only question is where...
Beige Book: Most Districts indicated economic growth was modest
Most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and AugustConsumer spending on tourism was stronger than expected but other retail spending continued to slow, especially non-essentialSome Districts highlighted reports suggesting consumers may have...
Fed’s Beige Book coming up next
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Credit Agricole: Is 148 the line in the sand for Japan’s MOF to intervene in USD/JPY?
Masato KandaCredit Agricole explores the rising tensions surrounding the USD/JPY exchange rate, particularly in the wake of strong warnings from Japan's Vice Minister of Finance, Masato Kanda. The report considers whether a move to 148 in USD/JPY could compel the...
S&P 500 decline extends to 1%. Head and shoulders pattern emerging?
It's been a one-way trade in the US stock market since the strong ISM services reading and it's continuing. Last week, I highlighted the possibility of a head-and-shoulders pattern shaping up on the S&P 500 and today's drop adds to the case.We're still a long ways...
Senate votes to confirm Philip Jefferson as Fed vice chair
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
European equity close: A break to the downside?
Closing changes:Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%French CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -1.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%I've been carefully watching the Stoxx 600 for the past week or so as it rang off a series of doji stars on the chart. Today it broke to the downside but...
Nasdaq falls 1.2% as the ‘good news is bad news’ mode hits
Nasdaq Comp dailyThe Nasdaq Composite is down 1.2% and trading at the lows of the day. The selling acclerated after a strong US services survey from the Institute for Supply Management. Rather than cheering a resilient economy, the market is fretting about higher...
ECB’s Visco: Interest rates have gone where they needed to go
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
November Federal Reserve hike pricing rises above 50%
Jerome Powell studying the calendar (AI image)Federal Reserve pricing now suggests a 52% chance of a hike at the November 1 meeting, up from 40% earlier in the week. The jump comes after a surprisingly strong ISM services survey showed an acceleration in August,...
US August ISM services 54.5 vs 52.5 expected
> US August ISM services 54.5 vs 52.5 expected August 2023 US services survey from the Institute for Supply Management <!--> Adam Button Wednesday, 06/09/2023 | 14:00 GMT-0 06/09/2023 | 14:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> US ISM Services PMI ADVERTISEMENT -...
Bank of Canada holds rates at 5.00% as expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
S&P Global final August US services PMI 50.5 vs 51.0 prelim
Lowest in seven months A weaker rise in output was primarily driven by a renewed contraction in new businessNew orders fell for the first time in six monthsPrelim was 51.0Prior was 52.3Composite final 50.2 vs 50.4 prelim (prior 52.0)There are risks to the downside for...
Ahead of the ISM services survey, there are signs of a weakening US consumer
Here is a good thread from Bob Elliott highlighting that spending trackers from Morgan Stanley, JPM, and Citi all show recent weakening.Here's what Citi had to say: Our Citi Card Data showed Hardlines Retail spending declined -12.2% y/y in August, which was worse than...
BOE’s Bailey: Many indicators are signalling a fall in inflation, which will be marked
Wage bargaining has surprised to the upsideThere has been a very large terms of trade shock in this countryMany indicators are signalling a fall in inflation, which will be marked by the end of this yearQuestion is: As headline inflation comes down, will we see...
Poland central bank delivers a surprise 75 bps cut vs -25 bpd expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US equities set to open modestly lower
The bond market isn't doing much today with yields flat to down 2 bps across the curve. In turn, stocks are quiet with the S&P 500 set to open 9 points lower, or 0.2%.I've got my eyes on the Russell 2000, which tumbled 2% yesterday in an ominous sign.Russell 2000...
Bank of England Governor Bailey set to testify shortly
Coming up at 1415 London time, we will get a few members of the MPC speaking in parliament:Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England; Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England; Dr Swati Dhingra, External Member, Monetary Policy...