High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Australian September Private Sector Credit +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3024 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
BRC data shows UK shop price inflation at lowest since August 2022
British Retail Consortium data for October 2023:prices in UK store chains rose at the slowest pace in more than a yeaannual shop price inflation dropped to 5.2% from 6.2% in September, its weakest since August 2022 Food price inflation y/y fell for the sixth month in...
Lloyds Bank Business confidence measure hits second-highest level of 2023: 39% (prior 36%)
Lloyds Bank Business Barometer data for October 2023:business confidence grew in October to 39% after a drop in September at 36%October rose to its second-highest level of 2023"However, our data shows that firms are still safeguarding their profit margins in response...
Japan’s JGB 10 year yiedl hits 0.955%, highest since May 2013
It looks like the Bank of Japan's YCC ceiling on the 10-year yield will be raised to 1.5%:JGB sellers jumping in ahead of that taking the yield to 0.955%. The last time the BOJ expanded the ceiling they made the argument that doing so would mean they could maintain...
New Zealand October business confidence 23.4% (prior 1.5%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Japan Sept. data: Preliminary Industrial Production +0.2% m/m (expected 2.5%)
Japan data for September 2023:Preliminary Industrial Production +0.2% m/m ... very disappointingexpected 2.5%, prior -0.7%fo the y/y -4.6% (exp -2.3%, prior -4.4%)forecast 1 month ahead is +3.9% (prior +5.8%)forecast 2 months ahead is -2.8% (prior +3.8%)Retail sales...
JP Morgan are looking at 3 factors that’ll trigger an S&P500 short squeeze
Huh. Would have been better to have had this prior to the open on Monday, but anyway, FWIW:JP Morgan's 3 factors:evidence that consumer spending isn't slowing down too a great degreean earnings season that comes in relatively strongthe FOMC clearly saying its on...
Japan data: September unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.6%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Bank of America expect the BOJ to allow the 10 year JGB yield ceiling to rise to 1.5%
The summary points from BoA's Bank of Japan preview:The back-up in global rates is putting pressure on YCC once again, leaving the BoJ with a difficult choiceWhile major policy revisions are unlikely, we expect another YCC tweak with base case an increase in 10yr JGB...
Australia data – ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence 75.0 (prior 78.2)
Weekly consumer sentiment survey shunts 3.5 point lowerlowest since early August 2023has now spent 39 straight weeks below the mark of 85 – equalling the longest streak at this level set in 1990-91ANZ say the drop on the week is due to:The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian...
At least we know what the BOJ will do today: 10 year JGB yield to be permitted above +1%
You can stop wondering what the Bank of Japan is up to. The Nikkei posted this overnight:The Nikkei cited two unnamed sources. As background to this if the Nikkei writes a story like this then its as good as done. That's my 2 cents, could be famous last words but I...
Morgan Stanley analyst says the chance of a Q4 S&P 500 rally has fallen considerably
Last week I posted on Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson:In a fresh note to open the week, Wilson maintained he sees downside, not upside for the US benchmark index:likelihood of a Q4 rally has “fallen considerably” over the past monthinitial...
New Zealand September Building Approvals data: -4.7% m/m (prior -7.0%)
Building consents were -37.% y/y Stats NZ comment:“The annual number of new homes consented has continued to decrease from its peak of 51,015 in the year ended May 2022,” “However, the number of new homes consented in the year ended September 2023 is still at a higher...
CHF ICYMI: Swiss National Bank to scrap interest paid on minimum reserves (ECB to follow?)
Justin had the Swiss National Bank news as it hit:In Switzerland, from December 1:sight deposits held to meet minimum reserve requirements will no longer be remuneratedbanks will be paid the SNB's policy rate, currently 1.75%, on deposits equivalent to 25 times their...
Brent crude – World Bank still warning that oil prices could reach US$150 a barrel
The World Bank is still cautioning on oil prices, saying that even a small disruption to oil supply could take around 2 million barrels a day out the market. Snippets from the report:in a worse case scenario is a situation similar to the oil crisis of the 1970s, which...
ICYMI: BOJ set to allow 10-yr Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1% (‘sources’)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
BOC’s Macklem: Low growth, higher rates will impact the government budget
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke earlier:He's still dropping the odd comment:Low growth, higher rates will impact the government budgetProtecting Canada's very good fiscal position is important Senior Deputy Governor Rogers also:Governing Council has not started...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY sinks ahead of the BOJ decision
Markets:Gold down $10 to $1995US 10-year yields up 4.3 to 4.89%S&P 500 up 48 points to 4185, or 1.2%WTI crude oil down $3.10 to $82.44AUD leads, USD lagsThe US dollar was soft today and I highlighted three reasons why earlier: 1) Diminishing geopolitical risk...