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A note on Monday from Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson. He has been bearish through 2023 but sees potential for a late cycle rally now. He says current conditions look similar to 2019, when the S&P 500 rose 29% "In our view, the positive policy impact has...
This summary of the Bank of America note is via eFX. For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7-day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. 1. Rate Hike Expectation: BofA anticipates the RBA to raise...
JP Morgan noted on Monday that it is confirming its view of lower UST yield in H2 this year, citing disinflation, the potential from a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy error, the risk of 'rollover' in spending by consumers, the risk of rollover in the jobs...
A note from ANZ on India's demand for commodities:“India’s demand for commodities is slated to grow rapidly, supported by favorable demographics, urbanization, the expansion of manufacturing and exports and the build-up of infrastructure”ANZ point to India's rate of...
The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies today, while the JPY is the weakest. The USD is ending the day with mixed results to day with modest gains versus the EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY. The greenback is lower versus the commodity currencies led by a -1% decline vs...
The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due on 01 August 2023 at 2.30pm Sydney time (0430 GMT, 1230 am US Eastern time). Analysts are split between those expecting no change and those expecting a +25bp rate hike. Market pricing is firmly for no change to the cash...
July was a strong month for US equities that closed out with some modest gains:S&P 500 +0.2%Nasdaq Comp +0.2%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +1.0%On the month:S&P 500 +3.1Nasdaq Comp +4.0%DJIA +3.35%Russell 2000 +6.0%Value is playing some catch-up and the Russell 2000...
The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT at 12.30am US Eastern time. Marekt pricing is showing an on-hold decision while analysts are split between on-hold and a +25bp hike. I'll have more to come on this...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The NZDUSD is closing today higher. The currency pair is up 0.70%. The move to the upside saw the pair extend above 3 separate moving averages100-hour moving average at 0.6198200-hour moving average of 0.62089200-day moving average of 0.62215. The high price reached...
HSBC lays out its perspective on the potential movements of the GBP in relation to the Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming decisions:Key Takeaways:Expected Rate Hike: HSBC's primary assumption is that the BoE will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points on 3 August....
In late-June I highlighted that seasonals for stock markets were strong for July and that's exactly what took place, including a 13-day rally in Dow Jones Industrial Average.That chapter is closing and it's time to turn the page to August so here are some seasonal...
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $81.80. That's up $1.22 or 1.51%Although Chinese PMI data was week, they later gave assurances of upcoming consumption support from Chinese government departments. Reuters monthly OPEC poll revealed a fall in July...
EURUSD expands the range today, but still above supportThe EURUSD started the US session with a low at 1.1004 and just above the 61.8% retracement at 1.1002. The high was at 1.1037 which was just short of the 100-hour MA. That was a narrow range of only about 33...
On the final day of each month the US Energy Information Administration releases monthly demand figures and they continue to stress that the weekly data can't be trusted.Today's report pegs US total demand at 20.776m bpd in May using monthly data, that's up 973,000...
RBAAustralia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) has put forth their perspective on the upcoming RBA decision and its implications for the AUD/NZD pair:Key Takeaways:RBA's Expected Decision: ANZ predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will opt to maintain...
WTI crude oil was approaching key resistanceWTI crude oil futures are trading higher by about $0.84 or 0.99% at $81.40. The high price today has reached $81.72. That took the price to the highest level since April 17.Looking at the daily chart, the price moved above...
Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage report for July shows:Hedge funds have been de-risking in July at levels that are close to record levels for the past decade.The de-risking by hedge funds in July has been mainly attributed to short covering.Long/short hedge funds...
The USDCHF moves higher to a new high in the late London morning session. The high price moved up to test the 38.2% of the move down from the June 30 high, and an old rising trend line. Those levels were both broken on Friday, but failed. The buyers had their shot....
Closing changes today:Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX flatFTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC +0.4%Italy MIB +0.6%Spain IBEX -0.2%On the monthStoxx 600 +2.2%German DAX +2.0%FTSE 100 +2.4%French CAC +1.5%Italy MIB +5.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Year-to-date gains fall in the 3.5% (UK) to 25%...