The relief comes as the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to be centered mostly around Gaza. And while the situation is doleful, it isn't one that is having much economic impact globally - at least for now. Once again, the safety bets ahead of the weekend are being...
ECB’s Simkus: Unless there are data surprises, current level of restriction is sufficient
They're wanting to leave the door open for December as well but at the same time, maintaining that not doing anything more from here is also the right play. For now, the inflation numbers are trending in their favour but they'd certainly be hoping for more help from...
Germany Q3 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs -0.3% q/q expected
Prior 0.0%Honestly, anything other than a negative reading would've been a surprise. So, as far as bad news go, this is probably the best version of it as the German economy is only seen marginally contracting in Q3 - at least based on initial estimates. This will...
Bavaria October CPI +3.7% vs +4.1% y/y prior
The other state readings released at around the same time:Hesse CPI +3.6% vs +4.7% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +4.4% vs +5.1% y/y priorAll the estimates are pointing to softer annual inflation readings in October compared to September. The magnitudes are still up...
AUD Rallies; Bond Yields Ease; Wall Street Stocks Mixed
The Dollar Index (DXY), a popular gauge of the Greenback’s value against a basket of 6 major currencies, ended flat, at 106.58 (106.60). The US currency maintained its gains versus its rivals ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.Against the...
ECB’s Kazimir: Additional tightening could come if incoming data forces us to
We will have to stay at the peak for the next few quartersBets on rate cuts happening in 1H 2024 are entirely misplacedEagerly awaits December update of inflation forecast to get a clearer pictureUpside risks to inflation have yet to dissipate entirely, must stay...
What is the USD Trajectory Going Ahead Into 2023 Q4?
In the past month, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remained largely stable, exhibiting fluctuations without a clear directional trend. During October, the dollar struggled to gain momentum in either direction. Over this period, the dollar strengthened against the...
ECB Rate Pause Impact on EURUSD
The EUR/USD exchange rate has remained relatively stable following the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent policy announcement, which closely resembled the statement from September. Notably, there was no dialogue regarding potential changes to the minimum reserve...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30 October – 3 November
The upcoming week is set to be eventful with a variety of data releases for the FX market.On Tuesday, in Japan we are expecting the release of the BoJ Outlook Report, the BoJ Policy Rate, the Monetary Policy Statement and the Bank's press conference. Canada will...
FX option expiries for 30 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0550 mark, which does not offer too much technical significance. But it could be a magnet for price action to center around there before rolling off later in the day...
European equities open on a better note to start the new week
Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%That's a decent advance for now after the poor showing towards the end of last week. This comes as we see a bit of a better mood with US futures as well, with S&P...
Gold Technical Analysis – Watch these key levels for the next trade
Gold continues to be supported by the negative risk sentiment caused by the Israel-Hamas war. We’ve been seeing a clear pattern of strong rallies into the weekend in the past three weeks as market participants feared a ground offensive in Gaza and an escalation of the...
Spain October preliminary CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y prior
Prior +3.5%HICP +3.5% vs +3.7% y/y expectedPrior +3.3%There's no change to headline annual inflation in Spain from September to October but at least core inflation is seen slowing down further from 5.8% last month to 5.2% this month. That will be a welcome development...
Switzerland October KOF leading indicator index 95.8 vs 95.0 expected
Prior 95.9The Swiss leading economic barometer came in better than expected in October but it shows little change to that in September. That continues to highlight a moderation in economic conditions as the slowdown in the region continues to reverberate.MoneyMaker FX...
USD/JPY drops further on the day, signs of exhaustion?
USD/JPY hourly chartThe pair has now fallen from 149.65 to 149.30 in the last half-hour or so as the push away from the 150.00 mark continues to take hold. The attempt to keep above the figure mark at the end of last week may be the last real effort from buyers to try...
Dow Jones Technical Analysis – The bears are waiting around these key levels
Last week, the risk sentiment started on a positive note at the beginning of the week due to the lack of a ground offensive in Gaza. Unfortunately, things went south from Wednesday onwards as Israeli PM Netanyahu delivered a speech where he said that they were...
SNB announces changes to remuneration of sight deposits
This will kick into effect on 1 December 2023, with the SNB lowering the threshold factor for the remuneration of sight deposits of those account holders subject to the minimum reserve requirements from 28 to 25. For some context, the threshold factor is applied to...
North Rhine Westphalia October CPI +3.1% vs +4.2% y/y prior
That's a notable drop in annual consumer prices for Germany's industrial state. If paired with the Brandenburg reading from Friday, that could mean we should see a steeper drop than expected for the national reading later today. For some context, you can check this...
German inflation, Q3 GDP on the agenda today
We are approaching month-end and that can be a bit of a tricky time for markets, not least with so many other moving parts in play at the moment. Equities displayed poor form towards the latter stages of last week but are hoping to find some bit part relief today, as...
Major currencies little changed so far on the day
The most notable thing in the major currencies space since Friday is that USD/JPY has tripped back below the 150.00 mark. That is keeping the dollar in a more tentative spot once more as we continue to see some consolidation against the likes of the euro and pound as...