BOJ decision could pour could water on the economy, needs high attentionPolicy tweak sends a message to finally exit from easing policyOn the final point, that certainly is reflected by 10-year JGB yields but not so much in the Japanese yen currency. The poor method...
A little bit of this and that for the ECB today
The slightest of beats in the quarterly GDP reading for Q2 will at least provide the ECB some comfort, even as growth conditions are seen slowing down significantly. It is still a positive estimate and it is one that they can use to keep the spin of things if they...
Eurozone Q2 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q expected
Prior -0.1%GDP +0.6% vs +0.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0%The slight beat is at least a welcoming number for the ECB but the outlook is still very much uncertain. Dark clouds are circling the euro area economy to start Q3 and if they do signify a stronger downturn in the...
Eurozone July preliminary CPI +5.3% vs +5.3% y/y expected
Prior +5.5%Core CPI +5.5% vs +5.4% y/y expectedPrior +5.5%Well, headline annual inflation did decline slightly as per estimates but core annual inflation continues to remain rather sticky. That won't do the ECB much comfort in trying to spin the narrative for a...
AUD/USD higher on the day but buyers have more work to do
The aussie and kiwi are sitting higher today, helped out by China stimulus news and a rally in Asian stocks. European indices were more tepid early on but are also turning the corner now with US futures also paring earlier losses to be flat on the day. That is seeing...
Dow Jones Technical Analysis – The all-time high is in sight
Last week, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The policy statement was left unchanged, so the market couldn’t get any signal for the next moves. In fact, the focus was not on the decision itself, but on the...
UK June mortgage approvals 54.66k vs 49.00k expected
Prior 50.52k; revised to 51.14kNet consumer credit £1.7 billion vs £1.3 billion expectedPrior £1.1 billionOf note, the net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals rose to its highest since April 2018. The breakdown shows that the borrowing on credit cards remained...
We are not living in a 0 rates world anymore, have you noticed?
Well, of course someone has noticed: first of all, the borrowers of variable-rate mortgages who have seen their repayments skyrocket, or those who would like to apply for a new one or refinance their old one. In the US the official mortgage rate has reached 7.09%, in...
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 28 July CHF 490.1 bn vs CHF 489.3 bn prior
Domestic sight deposits CHF 479.3 bn vs CHF 478.5 bn priorAfter the banking crisis towards the end of Q1, SNB sight deposits have pretty much resumed the downwards trend as the central bank continues to make sure its policy settings is being transmitted accordingly. A...
Italy Q2 preliminary GDP -0.3% vs 0.0% q/q expected
Prior +0.6%That's a miss on estimates and is not a good look for the Italian economy, with Q3 struggles set to intensify. If the PMI data in Europe shows no signs of improvement in the next two months, we could be staring at a technical recession in Italy.MoneyMaker...
GBP Price Forecast: Pound Readies for BoE
POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTSBoE expected to hike by 25bps this week.Key EZ and US economic data scheduled with eurozone flash GDO and core inflation in focus today.Current momentum favors neither bulls nor bears. Recommended by Warren Venketas Get Your...
USD/JPY at three-week highs as buyers look for further upside
USD/JPY daily chartThe pair is now trading at the highs for the day with gains stretching to roughly 100 pips. The levels above 142.00 are the highest since 10 July and if buyers can keep that up ahead of the daily close, it will open up the path towards 145.00 next...
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Watch this level for the next big move
The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged. This outcome was already baked in, and the market was more interested on possible hints from Fed Chair Powell regarding the next policy moves. Unfortunately, Powell didn’t offer much as...
FX option expiries for 31 July 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at 1.1000, so that could keep price action a little more sticky just in and around the figure level during the session ahead. The pair is observing a narrow range so far today,...
European equities keep a touch lower at the open today
Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.2%It's just a marginal dent as compared to the gains from last week and this month in particular for European stocks. US futures are also just marginally lower with S&P 500 futures down...
Market Outlook for the Week of 31 July – 4 August
The past week was eventful, marked by the Fed raising interest rates by 25bps, as expected. The post-meeting comments stressed a data-dependent approach to future decisions but avoided more details about future hikes. On Friday, the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged...
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – “Make it or Break it” moment for the Market
Last week, the Fed hiked the interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected. The market was more focused on the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for signals on the future moves. Unfortunately, Powell didn’t offer anything for the market as he kept all the options on...
Germany June import price index -1.6% vs -0.7% m/m expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Germany June retail sales -0.8% vs +0.2% m/m expected
> Germany June retail sales -0.8% vs +0.2% m/m expected Latest data released by Destatis - 31 July 2023 <!--> Justin Low Monday, 31/07/2023 | 06:00 GMT-0 31/07/2023 | 06:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Prior +0.4% ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOW -->...
Trade ideas thread – European session 31 July 2023
And just like that, we're at the end of yet another month. After all the action last week, let's see how major currencies have performed as of today with the dollar used as a benchmark:EUR +0.9%JPY +1.6%GBP +1.2%CHF +2.6%CAD +0.1%AUD +0.3%NZD +0.9%If you discount the...