People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
BoA unconvinced the FOMC rate hike cycle is over, more ahead has “USD supportive aspects”
Bank of America economic analysts on their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications for the US dollar. We retain our view that the Fed has one more policy rate hike in store and look for a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting...
ICYMI – Saudi Arabia is expected to extend oil supply cuts into September
While factors boosting demand for oil improved overnight and on Wednesday:strong economic data from the US, in gross domestic product and pending home sales in JuneFederal Reserve staff ditched their recession forecast it put in place in MarchOn the supply side came...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1665 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
The US will not permit Hong Kong’s leader to attend the November APEC summit
This news will not be well received by Chinese Communist Party leadership. Via a Washington Post (may be gated) report: The White House has decided it will bar Hong Kong’s top government official from attending a major economic summit in the United States this fall,...
The yield on the 10 year Japanese Govmnt Bond has risen above the BOJ’s tolerance band top
The yield on the 10 year Japanese Government Bond has hit 0.505%.Above the 0.5% top of the Bank of Japan tolerance band (zero % +/- 50bps)highest since March 3USD/JPY is dropping as speculation continues there will be a Bank of Japan YCC tweak today, along the line...
Tokyo July CPI data comes in way above the 2% BOJ target rate. Again.
Tokyo area inflation. This is regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide inflation but its not a perfect 1 for 1 indication. The core-core is the 'ex. Food & Energy', which is the closest measure to the US core inflation rate. At 4% that is very robust...
South Korean June data: Industrial output -1% m/m (-0.3% expected)
Data from South Korea for June 2023Industrial output -1% m/m -0.3% expectedIndustrial output -5.6% y/y-5.5% expectedService sector output is +0.5% m/mRetail sales also up, 1% m/m-Mixed signals from the SK economy. The country is often referred to as a bellwether for...
Bank of Japan preview – DB says YCC tweak a 40% probability
Deutsche Bank on the Bank of Japan meeting coming up today:We see some policy revision as a circa 40% probability event but continue to expect no change in monetary stance as the baseline. For the Outlook Report, we expect the BoJ to increase the inflation outlook for...
Chevron: Q2 2023 Earnings Report Preview
Chevron Corp. is expected to report earnings on Friday (28/07) before market open, amid rising crude oil prices. The report is for the fiscal quarter ending June 2023. USOil prices broke $80/barrel for the first time since mid-April on Thursday (27/07). Analysts...
Conflicting views out of Goldman Sachs on the rate hike path ahead for the Federal Reserve
Goldman Sachs economists We continue to expect that today's hike will be the last of the cycle. Powell said that the FOMC will be particularly focused on the inflation data, and we expect the next few CPI reports to be soft. As a result, we expect that the FOMC will...
ICYMI: SEC Chair Gensler said the crypto market is “rife with fraud, rife with hucksters”
US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler spoke on Thursday with Bloomberg TV on its "Bloomberg Markets" show.crypto is highly speculativeinvestors should not assume they're getting the protections of the securities laws, even though the securities laws...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 27 JulZ: ECBs hikes, with BOJ next. US data strong today
The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest of the major currencies. The strongest to weakest of the major currenciesThe day started with the ECB hiking rates by 25 basis points as expected. Shortly thereafter, a slew of economic data the US was released with...
Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting preview – YCC tweak or not is the question
Comments from ANZ on the Bank of Japan meeting today (for more on this meeting and the leaks we've seen, along with market pricing indications on what to expect, check out this here - Economic calendar in Asia 28 July 2023)ANZ:Although Ueda pushed back on expectations...
Economic calendar in Asia – BOJ policy tweak day! (maybe). Tokyo CPI data before that.
The big focus for the session is the Bank of Japan statement. Will there be a policy change or not? We have had leaks of information, but unfortunately, the leaks support both sides of the argument. Which is not much help, is it?I posted yesterday on spiking implied...
Trade ideas thread – Friday, 28 July 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US equity close: Dow Jones winning streak ends at 13
Records are made to be broken, but not this one. The Dow Jones Industrial Average today looked like it would tie the all time record (set way back in 1897) of 14 straight days higher. Instead, we got an intraday reversal lower after an apparent hawkish Bank of Japan...
Which is the BOJ signal and which is the noise?
USD/JPY is at a fresh low for the day, down 127 pips to 138.95 as longs clear out ahead of the Bank of Japan decision later. Doubling the pain was an earlier rally in USD/JPY due to broad USD strength following strong GDP and initial jobless claims.At this point, both...
EURUSD moves to new lows. EURJPY helping the downside momentum.
EURUSD falls to next target areaThe EURUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process has reached the next target area between 1.09618 and 1.09759 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). Today, the move to the downside started against the 200-hour...
The Dow string of 13 higher closes is in jeopardy of ending today. What next?
The Dow has moved higher for 13 consecutive days. Today the price made a new highs going back to February 2022, but has rotated to the downside. The index is currently down -210 points or -0.59% at 35309.97. Bank of Japan threatening to change their policy (on top of...