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Need to be particularly wary about letting an inflation persistence dynamic set inThe BOE still needs to hike rates again, so the headline remark definitely sides with that. The OIS market is pricing in ~76% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for later this month...
> Central Banks > ECB's Vujčić: We won't know in Sept, October or even November where the terminal rate is Central Banks Remarks by ECB policymaker, Boris Vujčić <!--> --> Justin Low Friday, 01/09/2023 | 10:09 GMT-0 01/09/2023 | 10:09 GMT-0 <!-->...
There's one thing that dollar bears and gold bugs have in common at the moment, and that is the call for lower bond yields - which in a sense is this scenario here. But where gold truly shines is when we start to get to the point of rate cuts and the narrative of...
A new day, a new intervention by Chinese policy makers. But we will get to the solutions in a moment. Let’s start with the problems. Part of this began in the mid-1990s when a metal industry worker from a small rural village, Hui Ka Yan, had an idea: to borrow...
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures coming in at 0.16%. The US PMIs missed expectations across the board...
It's a quiet one in terms of market action in Europe, and understandably so. While equities are seeing some hopeful optimism, FX is rather dead with dollar pairs still sitting in narrow ranges on the day. Here's a snapshot of things currently:It's all about the US...
The markets were quiet on the last day of August, awaiting the key jobs report today. Treasuries and the US Dollar were firmer, but off their best levels, while Wall Street closed mixed. Ongoing expectations that the FOMC can pause, or is done with rate hikes...
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures...
Prior 45.3The headline reading is a 39-month low as UK manufacturing activity takes a big hit in August. Factory orders are seen tumbling in the face of higher rates with demand also being hit by weaker domestic and export conditions. S&P Global notes that:“August...
It's the start of a new month and we also have the US jobs report to contend with. So, when you throw in perhaps some positioning flows -or lack thereof - before an extended weekend, that might make things tricky to decipher later in the day. Anyway, I would lean...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
> Eurozone August final manufacturing PMI 43.5 vs 43.7 prelim Latest data released by HCOB - 1 September 2023 <!--> Justin Low Friday, 01/09/2023 | 08:00 GMT-0 01/09/2023 | 08:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Prior 42.7 ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOW...
Prior 38.8No change to the initial estimate as Germany's manufacturing sector remains in a deep recession, with output falling at its fastest pace since May 2020. Subdued demand conditions continue to be the root cause of the problems here but at least there is some...
Prior 45.1It's a slight revision lower but at least the reading is better than July. That said, it still points to a contraction in France's manufacturing sector as new orders declined at an accelerated pace in August. HCOB notes that:“France's manufacturing sector...
It looks to be the case as S&P 500 futures have now climbed to be up 12 points on the day, or 0.27%, currently. Nasdaq futures are up 0.19% and Dow futures up 0.31% as well at the moment.In Europe, major indices are also now sitting higher after a bit more of a...
Prior 44.5Italy's manufacturing sector stays in a downturn in August with production and new orders continuing to fall sharply on the month. The added negative development is that job losses were signalled for the first time since August 2020. HCOB notes that:“The...
Prior 38.5That's a slight improvement in Swiss manufacturing activity but it still points to a rather strong contraction after the plunge in July. Output continues to show further signs of falling but the good news at least is that inflationary pressures have eased...
US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures coming in at 0.16%. The US PMIs missed expectations across the board...
Prior 47.8That's a sharp drop in Spain's manufacturing activity with the headline reading being the lowest so far this year. Of note, new orders are showing their quickest pace of declines since November last year as subdued demand conditions are weighing further on...
Underlying inflation has peaked since April and appears to have begun its declineBut this encouraging sign is still far from sufficientOur options are open at the next and upcoming rate meetingsWe are very close to a peak in interest ratesBut far from a point where we...