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Nomura is anticipating the rate hike from the European Central Bank today to be the final move higher for this cycle, a hike of 25bp for policy rates. The depo rate at 3.75% after this, says Nomura, is to be the terminal rate.Also expect a strong likelihood that the...
Yesterday we had the latest official inflation report from Australia:Responses so far:Via Goldman Sachs, also trimming rate hike forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia:lowered their terminal RBA rate forecast to 4.6% (previously at 4.8%)But still expecting a rate...
The Federal Reserves raise rates by 25 basis points as expected to 5.5%. The changes to the statement were modest. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that two upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports and two non-farm payrolls reports will be crucial...
Justin had the news posted on Wednesday on the change of call from the National Australia Bank:NAB reasons that it expects the RBA to leave rates unchanged in August on the back of:1, the Q2 CPI result:and 2, while it continues to monitor incoming data on the...
I often say that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a poor measure of the US stock market but it's certainly been a great investment for anyone who holds it or the DIA ETF over the past 13 sessions. There were some close calls along the way but what a streak to cap a...
It's a relatively quiet calendar while we tick off the hours until the European Central Bank decision. Earlier:This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Jerome Powell studying the calendar (AI image)Two CPI reports, two non-farm payrolls reports.Those are the big numbers that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted between now and the September 20 FOMC decision. The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a hike,...
Below is a summary of the comments from the Fed Chair Powell according to topicsEmployment and Labor Market:There is a continuing strong pace of job growth.Signs of labor supply and demand are coming into better balance.Labor demand substantially exceeds...
The major stock indices have pushed to the upside as Powell stresses data dependency.Dow Industrial Average top 170 points or 0.48% at 35609S&P index is up 11.2 points or 0.24% at 4578.61NASDAQ index is back in positive territory with a gain of 38 points or 0.27%...
Inter-meeting data was broadly in line with our expectationsCPI was a bit better than expectationsWe haven't made any decisions about future meetingsWe're looking for moderate growth, we're looking for a better balance in supply and demand, particularly in labor...
Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyoneWe've covered a lot of ground and the full effect of our tightening has yet to be feltStill a strong pace of jobs growthLabor demand still 'substantially' exceeds supplyThe process of getting back to 2%...
EURUSD: The EUSUSD remains above its 50% midpoint of the July trading range. That level comes in at 1.10539. The New York (and London session) held that midpoint level. The Asian session mostly traded below the midpoint level. On the top side, the falling 100-hour...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks for about an hour in his usual post-Fed press conference. The video is below but note this chart from Bespoke that highlights the tendency of the market to sell off after Powell wraps up his appearance at around 3:30 pm ET.Fed chair fed...
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains...
25 bps rate hikeeconomic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace (vs modest pace prior)Repeats forward guidance that refers to "the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate"No other changes to the statementThis statement is virtually...
A snapshot of market levels ahead of the FOMC rate decision:Forex:EURUSD 1.1064USDJPY 140.53 GBPUSD 1.2910 USDCHF 0.8636USDCAD 1.3232AUDUSD 0.6742NZDUSD 016198US interest rates:2-year yield 4.097%5-year yield 4.163%, +1.2 basis points10-year yield 3.898%, -1.3 basis...
As the Fed decision looms at the top of the hour, the major indices are trading lower led by the NASDAQ index. The Dow is down marginally. A close lower today would snap its 12-day winning streak. The record is 13 straight days of gains. A snapshot market currently...
Jerome Powell reading by the fire (AI image)I always like to read the prior statement one more time before the FOMC decision, which is at the top of the hour.Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementecent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand...
Consensus among BOC members was that the cost of delaying action was greater than the benefit of waiting for more dataAgreed they were prepared to hike further if needed but 'did not want to do more than they had to'Concerned that progress towards price stability...